Predifi World Index

Live

Predifi World Index

moderate

0.0

/1000.0

MODERATE UNCERTAINTY

0 · Extreme2642 · Moderate60100 · Stable

Markets

Sources

7 high

Divergences

Signal · Invalid Date

Index data loading…

Category Radar

Stable

Moderate

Stressed

Critical

30-Day Trend

Hi Lo

Invalid Date50.0 → 50.0Invalid Date

Stable60–100

Moderate42–60

Stressed26–42

Critical0–26

Divergence Scanner

7 HIGH SIGNAL35 signals

Sort:

MarketCrowd %Signal %Gap VisualiserGapSourceDirection

high

Fed cuts rates before June 2026

Kalshi · economics

41%

Kalshi

68%

market

-27

pts

CME FedWatch

CROWD LOW

$8.4M

41%vs CME FedWatch68%

-27pt

high

BTC above $120k by Dec 2026

Polymarket · crypto

48%

Polymarket

71%

market

-23

pts

Deribit Options

CROWD LOW

$12.4M

48%vs Deribit Options71%

-23pt

high

Trump approval rating above 50%

Kalshi · politics

22%

Kalshi

44%

survey

-22

pts

Polling Average

CROWD LOW

$3.1M

22%vs Polling Average44%

-22pt

high

US GDP growth > 2.5% in 2026

Polymarket · economics

52%

Polymarket

71%

model

-19

pts

Atlanta GDPNow

CROWD LOW

$1.1M

52%vs Atlanta GDPNow71%

-19pt

high

Fed total cuts ≥ 3 in 2026

Polymarket · economics

33%

Polymarket

51%

market

-18

pts

CME FF Futures

CROWD LOW

$3.2M

33%vs CME FF Futures51%

-18pt

high

2026 sets global temperature record

Polymarket · climate

44%

Polymarket

62%

model

-18

pts

NOAA Climate Model

CROWD LOW

$780K

44%vs NOAA Climate Model62%

-18pt

high

GPT-5 released before Jul 2026

Polymarket · technology

72%

Polymarket

55%

survey

+17

pts

Analyst Survey

CROWD HIGH

$4.8M

72%vs Analyst Survey55%

+17pt

medium

BTC dominance above 60% in 2026

Kalshi · crypto

38%

Kalshi

52%

market

-14

pts

On-chain Signal

CROWD LOW

$1.6M

38%vs On-chain Signal52%

-14pt

medium

US CPI below 3% by Dec 2026

Kalshi · economics

61%

Kalshi

48%

market

+13

pts

TIPS Breakeven

CROWD HIGH

$2.9M

61%vs TIPS Breakeven48%

+13pt

medium

ETH above $5k by Dec 2026

Polymarket · crypto

31%

Polymarket

44%

market

-13

pts

Deribit Options

CROWD LOW

$4.1M

31%vs Deribit Options44%

-13pt

medium

Crypto market cap > $5T in 2026

Kalshi · crypto

44%

Kalshi

31%

survey

+13

pts

Analyst Consensus

CROWD HIGH

$2.2M

44%vs Analyst Consensus31%

+13pt

medium

Ukraine-Russia ceasefire by Dec 2026

Polymarket · geopolitics

31%

Polymarket

18%

sentiment

+13

pts

GDELT Sentiment

CROWD HIGH

$9.2M

31%vs GDELT Sentiment18%

+13pt

medium

US recession before Q4 2026

Kalshi · economics

34%

Kalshi

22%

model

+12

pts

NY Fed Model

CROWD HIGH

$5.8M

34%vs NY Fed Model22%

+12pt

medium

ECB cuts rates ≥ 2× in 2026

Polymarket · economics

67%

Polymarket

79%

market

-12

pts

OIS Implied

CROWD LOW

$1.4M

67%vs OIS Implied79%

-12pt

medium

Extreme weather costs > 2023 levels

Polymarket · climate

61%

Polymarket

73%

model

-12

pts

Actuarial Model

CROWD LOW

$560K

61%vs Actuarial Model73%

-12pt

medium

US unemployment exceeds 5% in 2026

Polymarket · economics

28%

Polymarket

18%

model

+10

pts

FOMC Projections

CROWD HIGH

$890K

28%vs FOMC Projections18%

+10pt

medium

US recession 2026 (venue spread)

Polymarket · cross-venue

34%

Polymarket

24%

venue

+10

pts

Metaculus

CROWD HIGH

$5.8M

34%vs Metaculus24%

+10pt

medium

Democrats win House majority 2026

Polymarket · politics

38%

Polymarket

47%

survey

-9

pts

RCP Polling Avg

CROWD LOW

$6.3M

38%vs RCP Polling Avg47%

-9pt

medium

China-Taiwan military incident 2026

Kalshi · geopolitics

19%

Kalshi

28%

survey

-9

pts

Analyst Consensus

CROWD LOW

$3.7M

19%vs Analyst Consensus28%

-9pt

medium

New NATO member admitted 2026

Polymarket · geopolitics

67%

Polymarket

58%

survey

pts

Diplomatic Track

CROWD HIGH

$620K

67%vs Diplomatic Track58%

+9pt

medium

Major US AI regulation bill passes

Kalshi · technology

24%

Kalshi

15%

model

pts

GovTrack Model

CROWD HIGH

$2.3M

24%vs GovTrack Model15%

+9pt

medium

US carbon pricing mechanism 2026

Kalshi · climate

19%

Kalshi

27%

survey

-8

pts

Policy Analyst

CROWD LOW

$430K

19%vs Policy Analyst27%

-8pt

medium

GPT-5 before July (venue spread)

Polymarket · cross-venue

72%

Polymarket

64%

venue

pts

Metaculus

CROWD HIGH

$4.8M

72%vs Metaculus64%

+8pt

low

BTC above $100k by Jun 2026

Polymarket · crypto

62%

Polymarket

55%

market

pts

Deribit Options

CROWD HIGH

$8.7M

62%vs Deribit Options55%

+7pt

low

Supreme Court vacancy filled 2026

Kalshi · politics

34%

Kalshi

27%

survey

pts

Analyst Survey

CROWD HIGH

$1.8M

34%vs Analyst Survey27%

+7pt

medium

Oklahoma City Thunder win NBA 2026

Polymarket · sports

24%

Polymarket

31%

market

-7

pts

DraftKings

CROWD LOW

$980K

24%vs DraftKings31%

-7pt

low

EU AI Act enforcement begins 2026

Polymarket · technology

81%

Polymarket

88%

model

-7

pts

Legislative Track

CROWD LOW

$1.1M

81%vs Legislative Track88%

-7pt

medium

BTC > $100k (venue spread)

Polymarket · cross-venue

62%

Polymarket

55%

venue

pts

Kalshi

CROWD HIGH

$8.7M

62%vs Kalshi55%

+7pt

low

Ukraine ceasefire (venue spread)

Polymarket · cross-venue

31%

Polymarket

24%

venue

pts

Metaculus

CROWD HIGH

$9.2M

31%vs Metaculus24%

+7pt

low

Major immigration bill passes 2026

Polymarket · politics

18%

Polymarket

12%

model

pts

GovTrack Model

CROWD HIGH

$740K

18%vs GovTrack Model12%

+6pt

low

Real Madrid win UEFA Champions League

Polymarket · sports

28%

Polymarket

34%

market

-6

pts

Bet365

CROWD LOW

$2.1M

28%vs Bet36534%

-6pt

low

Iran nuclear deal signed in 2026

Polymarket · geopolitics

14%

Polymarket

survey

pts

Diplomatic Track

CROWD HIGH

$1.4M

14%vs Diplomatic Track8%

+6pt

low

Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl LX

Polymarket · sports

22%

Polymarket

18%

market

pts

Vegas Consensus

CROWD HIGH

$1.2M

22%vs Vegas Consensus18%

+4pt

low

New York Yankees win World Series 2026

Polymarket · sports

15%

Polymarket

19%

market

-4

pts

FanDuel

CROWD LOW

$870K

15%vs FanDuel19%

-4pt

low

Fed cuts before June (venue spread)

Polymarket · cross-venue

41%

Polymarket

38%

venue

pts

Kalshi

CROWD HIGH

$8.4M

41%vs Kalshi38%

+3pt

Category Breakdown

Polymarket Whale Radar

Large positions · On-chain

2m ago

BTC > $120k Dec 2026

0x8f2a…c391

YES

45% → 48%

$120k

71%

win rate

$4.2M

lifetime

14m ago

Fed cuts before June

0x3c91…d7f0

43% → 41%

$45k

58%

win rate

$890k

lifetime

38m ago

Ukraine ceasefire by Dec 2026

0x7f3a…1b82

YES

28% → 31%

$200k

83%

win rate

$12M

lifetime

1h ago

Trump approval above 50%

0x1d4e…8a23

24% → 22%

$67k

65%

win rate

$2.1M

lifetime

1h ago

GPT-5 released before Jul 2026

0xaa12…3309

YES

68% → 72%

$180k

77%

win rate

$6.7M

lifetime