Predifi World Index · Updated Invalid Date
50.0/1000.0
MODERATE UNCERTAINTY
Sources: Polymarket · Kalshi
30-day trend
50.0 → 50.0
0 · EXTREMESTABLE · 100
Category Breakdown
How It Works
01
Market Aggregation
Every day at 5AM UTC we fetch hundreds of open prediction markets from Polymarket and Kalshi, filtering by liquidity (min $50K volume) and relevance (max 180 days to close).
02
Stability Scoring
Each market gets a stability score: 1 − 2|p − 0.5|. A market priced at 50% (maximum uncertainty) scores 0. A market at 90% (near certainty) scores 0.80.
03
Weighted Index
Category scores are the mean stability across qualifying markets × 100. The World Index is the weighted sum of all 7 categories — geopolitics and economics weighted heaviest.